As an Appaloosa owner since 1973 and breeding both full sized, a couple of POA and Minis..... the genes run just like anything else. In my opinion, and from what I have seen, the more you dilute them, the less chance you have of getting color.
I breed Appy to Appy, and am trying to find them that have several generations behind them. (With the Minis, good luck in that). I do not have a homozygous stallion at this time, which would be a snowcap (approximately 97% color producers), a fewcap or a fewspot (approx 99% color producers)
And yes, this is the problem... everything regarding Appaloosa colors and what sparks them off are based on theory. There are no tests to seperate all the patterns and what to what makes what, etc.... The two people that have put the most time and effort and FIRST HAND experience at this is Gene Carr and Bob Lapp. They have written several articles over the years and their theories still stand true. They have decades of work at this and have not been proven wrong yet. Their theories are based on actual fact and trial and error breeding, studying pedigrees and horses, and have been breeding for decades themselves.
With pintos, unless a parent is homozygous, you can also breed two pintos and get a solid. I would not say that Appaloosas are any more prone to anything different. I have seen some horses with relatively LITTLE Appy in their background and nothing more than characteristics being bred to a non Appy and produce loud color.
Just like breeding for height, it is 'luck'- and a crap shoot, but remember that what you get at birth might not be what the horse looks like in a year or six years! Unlike a pinto that what you are born with is what you get for life, LOL
For those not that familiar with what is considered 'colored', if the horse is born with the required 'characteristics', it is considered 'colored'. (Striped hooves, sclera and mottled skin) It also, of course, must have Appy in the pedigree, as I have seen non Appy silver dapples, etc... with freckled skin or striped hooves, etc... I guess it would be compared to the pintos with minimal color or that are basicly solid with a blaze but still test positive for LWO, etc... ???
Yes, I bred two LOUD colored horses and got a 'solid' foal from the pair- however she does have characteristics so also has the possibility of developing a roan or snowflake coat pattern as well, but is already considered an Appaloosa. Roans are usually born solid, as are snowflakes. I have two foals this year, actually, that were born with characteristics but no visible coat pattern at birth... however I am relatively sure that something will develope with time. Since they do have the required characteristics however, they are still considered Appaloosa and carry the genetics to make a loud baby also.
Years ago when we had the full sized ones, we obtained a couple of top quality mares for a much cheaper price because they did not have loud color, they only had characteristics (ha, one colored out the next year at five years old!) but they produced very loud colored foals, including some snowcaps. In fact, in the years of breeding the full sized ones, only had one solid foal with no characteristics from a non characteristic mare. Even our QH mares produced color with a non homozygous stallion, but he was heavily Appy bred and not 15/16ths QH like you see on many today.
Nobody has the answers, there are no guarantees, but even when a snowcap, fewcap or fewspot has a 'solid', if it has characteristics, it is still considered 'colored', as those horses CAN and DO produce loud colored foals!
I have hear that those involved in the Project are no closer to an answer, and again are going still by theories. I dont know that we'll see an answer in my lifetime!