Obama holds significant lead

[LowriseMinis]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27488250/

Some excerpts:

Obama leads McCain by eight points nationally among likely voters, 51 to 43 percent, which is down three points from his 53-to-42 lead in the poll nearly two weeks ago.

To put Obama’s eight-point edge into perspective, the final NBC/WSJ survey before the 2004 presidential election had President Bush with a slim one-point lead over John Kerry, 48 to 47 percent.

Bush went on to win that election, 51 to 48 percent.

Looking inside the numbers, Obama leads McCain among African Americans (90 percent to 3 percent), Latinos (68 to 27), 18- to 34-year-olds (59 to 38), independents (48 to 38), blue-collar voters (51 to 44), suburban voters (49 to 44) and Catholics (49 to 46).

McCain, meanwhile, has the advantage among evangelicals (78 percent to 19 percent), those 65 years old and older (53 to 40), white men (54 to 42) and white women (48 to 47).

Eighty-eight percent of Obama voters say they will “definitely” vote for the Illinois senator, 6 percent say they will “probably” vote for him and another 6 percent say they are “leaning” toward him.

By comparison, 83 percent of McCain voters say they will definitely vote for the Arizona Republican, 9 percent say they will probably vote for him and 7 percent say they’re leaning toward him.

Forty-two percent say they have either a great deal of confidence or quite a bit of confidence that Obama will be able to get the country’s economy back on track. That is compared with just 27 percent who say that about McCain.

And what’s more, an equal number of respondents (57 percent) believe that they identify with McCain’s and Obama’s values and background. McCain has always led Obama on this question in previous NBC/WSJ surveys.

Some other findings in the poll:

* 30 percent say they have already voted, and Obama leads McCain among these voters, 51 to 43 percent;

* Respondents prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress over a GOP-controlled one by 12 points, 48 to 36 percent;

* Only 26 percent approve of President Bush’s job;

* And just 11 percent believe the country is headed in the right direction.

 

[Basketmiss]

see my post Has anyone on the forum been polled and you get my answer to this lead....

 

[LowriseMinis]

How political polls work: http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na...0,3724095.story

 

[Bassett]

Don't believe in polls. No matter who does them. No need to comment, just my opinion.

 

[barnbum]

Jeepers--that's not what I'm reading at all. Well, yes, Obama has the lead in this poll, but McCain has gained some every day. It's a very tight race.

After Election Journal completion, more of my students vote for Obama, but of the four that changed their mind in the pre EJ vote, all 4 switched to McCain.

 

[AppyLover2]

I doubt that anyone's surprised that the polls show Obama in the lead....after all they've shown him there for weeks now. If we wanted the polls to elect our officials we could all just stay home tomorrow and play with our minis. I, for one, don't think this is over yet. Obama may very well win.....but it won't be until after the American voter has their say.

 

[littlesteppers]

Yeahhh..good for you!!

 

[backwoodsnanny]

Personally I hate the polls and wish they were outlawed. Obama doesnt lead in anything yet nor does McCain since NO votes have been counted. Until the votes are done AND counted and the electoral college does its thing which I also think is wrong NO one is leading anything. Its all subjective opinion not concrete at all. I am a registered democrat and have not been polled by anyone but the dem committee of my state has tried with no less than 25 calls to find out who I am voting for and my reply none of your business. I take my right to vote seriously and also my right to vote for my candidate of choice and dont feel its anyones right to know who I will vote for. I do believe my years as a statistician have jaded me when it comes to polls because you can,by selectively surveying get a poll to say anything you want the masses to hear. So if you want McCain then you survey in rural areas where you most likely will find people who are for McCain and if you want Obama you check out Metropolitan areas. Just tow ways a poll can be manipulated. I dread tomorrow where after only a few percentages of the votes are counted we will start to see the winner either way to me the candidate hasnt won until his opponent concedes defeat. JMO

 

[LowriseMinis]

Actually if you read my post:

"* 30 percent say they have already voted, and Obama leads McCain among these voters, 51 to 43 percent;"

And this! http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081104/ap_on_...ire_first_votes

 

[sedeh]

Actually if you read my post:"* 30 percent say they have already voted, and Obama leads McCain among these voters, 51 to 43 percent;"

Don't they also say that more Democrats vote early than Republicans? So this would make sense to me.

 

[LowriseMinis]

Watching the news tonight, they said that the early voting was fairly even on both sides.

 

[backwoodsnanny]

As for those who have said they have voted one way or the other how many of those are like me and hate being called a million times with proaganda and barraged at every turn with both parties trying to shove their candidate down ones throat, so dont tell the truth about who they are voting for when being called by the pollsters. Only one person knows how they vote the person themselves and thats the way it should be and at least it seems all the hype has stirred people to get out and vote.

 

[OhHorsePee]

Jeepers--that's not what I'm reading at all. Well, yes, Obama has the lead in this poll, but McCain has gained some every day. It's a very tight race.

That's right! This truely will be an exciting day.

I am presently watching on TV where they are having issues with voting in the next county over. I bet there ends up with a lot of issues as the day goes on.

 

[Jill]

It will be an interesting night. After 2004, I sure know better than to listen to the exit polls, as a landslide was predicted for Kerry

I've already voted

I was in line before the center opened and was #47 in my district, right around 6:30am

Go McCain/Palin, Gilmore, and Cantor!!!

 

[Bassett]

This, in my opinion, is wrong too. These votes should not even be looked at until tonight.

"* 30 percent say they have already voted, and Obama leads McCain among these voters, 51 to 43 percent;"